The Holiday Season

The Holiday season means some much needed time off from work or a break after a long semester. In the sports world, it means a slow down of epic proportion, as meaningless bowl games begin, the NBA has yet to start mattering, college basketball teams schedule as many cupcakes as possible before conference play starts, and you sit around waiting for Sunday's NFL docket of games.

On first glance the Longhorns appeared to have followed suit. The football team awaits for their titanic struggle, that I can't seem to get myself excited for, against Arizona State in the Holiday Bowl and the basketball team looked to be in cruise control after wins against North Texas, Rice, and Texas State, the most recent in the least impressive fashion. But that is where the #5 Longhorns holiday ends, as the rest of their holiday schedule is a treat for fans.

A rundown of the Longhorns holiday docket reveals 4 strong opponents out of 5 in the remaining games before conference play.

12/18 vs. Oral Roberts (6-3)
- Yes, a team of dentists is coming to town. However, these aren't your everyday dentists. A 23-win team in 2006 that made the NCAA tournament as a #14 seed that returned all five starters for 2007. And in today's Cinderella world, a #14 seed means you can play some ball. Their three losses this season come on the road against Texas A&M-Corpus Christi (06 tournament team) by 5, #15 Texas A&M by 14, and Arkansas by 11. While it should be a game that the Horns should win, you have to look at the things that make this difficult. This is a good team, it's hard to get yourself excited for Oral Roberts, since I'm going with zero Longhorn players and a few fans that know that Oral Roberts is in Oklahoma (I had to look it up to make sure), and last, this Longhorns team might be looking ahead to a road tilt against #10 Michigan State a mere 4 days later.

Oral Roberts has a balanced attack led by junior SG Robert Jarvis, creator of the artificial heart, (and you thought they were just dentists) who is averaging 16.8 ppg. They also have some size inside with junior PF Marcus Lewis (6-8/245) averaging 11.2 ppg/4.2 rpg and senior C Shawn King (6-10/220) averaging 10.4 ppg/6.7 rpg. The Longhorns will have to play much better than they did against Texas State if they hope to prevail. You know, actually try. But this has all the makings of an upset.

12/22 at #10 Michigan State (9-1)
- This is not the team that lost to Grand Valley State in their exhibition. This is a team that plays some of the most physical basketball in the country boasting wins at Missouri by 3, at Bradley by 5, and at #22 BYU by 7. Their only loss comes on a neutral court against #1 UCLA by 5. This will be another hard road test for the Longhorns, and Michigan State may be a tougher place to play than UCLA. Michigan State's grinding, physical style of play will be a real test for a Longhorn team that isn't strong inside and isn't deep at all.

The Spartans boast arguably the best point guard in the country in Drew Neitzel. Since the Longhorns boast the other candidate in DJ Augustin, this will be a matchup to watch. Neitzel has become a true leader, floor general, and lights out shooter in his senior season, averaging 14.6 ppg and 4.7 apg. However, he might not be the most important player to his team. Sophomore swing man Raymar Morgan (6'7) averages 16.8 ppg and 7.6 rpg and is the most athletic player for Michigan State. He will be a defensive test and will be guarded by Damion James and Justin Mason. The other defensive test will be Goran Suton (8.8 ppg/8.7 rpg) who will pound Connor Atchley and the bench forwards inside all game long. Michigan State will go at the Longhorns and attack them inside and try to get them in foul trouble. This game will be a slugfest and should be a preview of how several teams will attack the Longhorns in conference play this season.

12/29 - vs. Wisconsin (8-2)
- The Longhorns continue their Big Ten Conference Challenge a week later at home against the Wisconsin Badgers, another team that will test the Longhorns physically. Led by 6'11 senior Brian Butch (13.3 ppg/7.9 rpg) and sophomore point guard Trevon Hughes out of Queens, NY (15.2 ppg/4.3 rpg/ 3.0 apg). The rest of their team is made of experienced talent in senior guard Michael Flowers (9.1 ppg/4.0 rpg) and junior forwards 6'7, 230 Marcus Landry (9.7 ppg/4.9 rpg) and 6'7 Joe Krabbenhoft (7.3 ppg/5.8 rpg). With Wisconsin teams, you know you're getting physical, disciplined teams that play skilled basketball. They will play slow and make you grind it out.

They have impressive wins against Georgia (by 19) and Colorado (by 26) with a tough loss against #15 Marquette (by 5). They also fell apart at #7 Duke by 24 earlier this season. But Wisconsin is an experienced team that is going to test our depth and try to dominate on the glass. They will struggle with Texas' athleticism, but they will try and dictate the pace of the game to counter act that. Foul trouble could also be a factor in this game.

1/2 vs. TCU (5-3)
- TCU is the easiest opponent of this stretch, but hey, you've at least heard of them. With their losses coming against Texas Tech, Oklahoma, and SMU, they're not terrible, but certainly not of the same caliber of the previous three opponents. They pretty much have three players who are of threat in junior shooting guard Henry Salter (13.9 ppg/5.6 rpg), senior guard Brent Hackett (12.6 ppg), and junior forward Kevin Langford (12.4 ppg/5.6 rpg). TCU shouldn't be too tough a game, but if Texas comes out flat and looks past TCU, this could be a game all the way down to the end.

1/5 vs. #24 St. Mary's (7-1)
- A team that went 17-15 a year ago has turned it around with youth. The emergence of sophomore center, 6'11 Omar Samhan (13.1 ppg/7.6 rpg) and freshman sensation Australian National point guard Patrick Mills (15.5 ppg/4.4 apg) have led St. Mary's to a #24 ranking and a favorite in the West Coast Conference. They have wins against #11 Oregon (by 12) and Seton Hall (by 15) this season, and their only loss comes on the road against Southern Illinois (by 15).

The Gaels have been sparked this season by the play of Mills who is a scoring threat from three point range and a threat to get to the basket. Inside the Gaels are led by the play of Samhan and junior forward Diamon Simpson (12.6 ppg/8.9 rpg). The Gaels are a team that is physical inside and carries the gritty nature of their point guard. They will try to outwork the Longhorns and will be confident coming into this game. But the longer the are able to play with the Horns, the more they will believe they can pull off the upset, and the more dangerous they will become. It is another trap game for the Horns against a team that is extremely capable.

#5 Texas Longhorns (10-0)
- The Horns, only 10 games into the season have figured out their rotation, and offensively, look as good as any team in the country. Led by DJ Augustin (19.5 ppg/6.8 apg) and AJ Abrams (19.2 ppg) the Horns will score. Damion James (11.8 ppg/10.0 rpg) and Connor Atchley (12.6 ppg/5.7 rpg) are relied upon to give this team their inside presence offensively and defensively. Justin Mason (10.2 ppg/3.6 rpg/3.4 apg) has emerged as the defensive stopper and glue guy for this lineup. Depth is the one question mark for this team as the Horns only use three bench players, all in the front court. Freshman forwards Alexis Wangmene (14 mpg) and Clint Chapman (10 mpg), and sophomore Dexter Pittman (7 mpg) are the only ones that are seeing any time off the bench, and it is limited. They have proved capable while in the game.

It will be interesting to see if highly touted freshman forward Gary Johnson (13 pts, 6 reb, 2 blks in 19 min in exhibition game) will make any kind of impact on the rotation when he returns, which is rumored to be soon, and could be during the 5 game holiday stretch. I think the impact he could have on the Longhorns would be huge for the rest of the season, giving the Longhorns a dynamic offensive post threat. But it took Mike Williams a long time to recover from missing the non-conference season his freshman year, and it hampered his development throughout his Longhorn career. Hopefully, Johnson will not run into the same problems if, and when he returns.

This five game stretch will test the Longhorns depth and interior and will determine if the Longhorns have an Achilles heel that teams will be trying to exploit the rest of the season. I don't think the Longhorns will come out of this test 5-0, as Michigan State appears to be the most obvious pitfall, but 2 or 3 losses in the next five is not out of the question, but going 4-1, I would deem a success.

The Strength of Schedule Dilemna

For the past few years, Texas has had to come into the college football season fighting perception. The perception that Texas was a good football team, but played in a weak conference and did not deserve to be listed among the elite teams in college football. If you took a closer look at the schedule, it usually was warranted.

Over the past two years, Texas has worked to fight that perception, scheduling a dangerous home and home with Ohio State, and bringing on teams like TCU and Central Florida, a team that is not a complete walkover. To combat a conference that I would probably put behind the Big East at this point, Texas needs their games against TCU and Central Florida to be convincing and stand up. Well, the win against TCU was convincing. Texas looked like an athletic and multi-talented team on offense and defense for at least a half of that game. It was a game that Texas could point to when TCU went 11-1, with one of the conferences best defenses.

Thursday night, TCU returned the favor, screwing over the Horns with a loss on the road against Air Force. Granted, Air Force is always a solid team, but blowing a 17-3 4th quarter lead, is just painful. It puts into question the type of year the Horned Frogs can put together, as they fall to 1-2, after blowing a 10 point lead against Texas and a 14 point lead in one quarter against Air Force. The psychological damage done by two winnable games gone array could dismantle the entire season for TCU. It is scary to see whether we are looking at a 7-5 team come November and saying, why didn't we beat them worse?

Texas can't afford to have TCU and Central Florida not pan out as quality opponents. When your conference consists of four pop warner teams in the Big XII North (Kansas may be good, it's just hard to tell against High School teams) and two flawed teams in Missouri (No defense) and Nebraska (Not flawed? Wait until USC this weekend), it is difficult to be taken seriously. Even in the Big XII South, that high powered, unstoppable offense of Oklahoma State seems to be put on hold, Texas Tech will always blow out weak opponents and come up short against real talent, and Texas A&M still appears not ready to take the next step after less than stellar performances against Montana State and Fresno State.

It once again appears the Big XII title will come down to Oklahoma and Texas. With Oklahoma somehow turning into a national title contender over night and looking down right scary, it means Texas will either need to pull a big upset against the Sooners, or hope for a BCS at large birth. With TCU faltering, the propostion of having a top 50 strength of schedule and be taken seriously on a national stage looks increasingly difficult.

Texas by the Numbers

With Texas' 34-13 win on Saturday over #19 TCU, let's take a look back at the numbers from Saturday's come from behind win.

Texas' offense
Quarterback
Colt McCoy completed 66% of his passes, going 25 of 38 for 239 yards. He averaged 9.5 yards per completion, throwing for one touchdown and two interceptions, and was not sacked. Colt once again had a solid completion percentage and did a solid job of leading the offense against a very good TCU defense. However, the offense struggled in the first half, and Colt started to force the game. It led to an interception return for a touchdown and another interception that led to a field goal before the half. Texas went into the half with a 10-0 deficit, much of it because Colt tried to do too much. The offense only had 98 yards in the first half and was outplayed against a top TCU unit. However, in the second half Colt was aided by a rejuvenated running game and it allowed him to attack the TCU unit, as the Longhorns racked up over 300 yards in the second half. It is worrisome that Colt continued to make mistakes that cost his team. Later on in the season, putting his team in a hole will make it very difficult for the Horns to win.

Running Backs
Jamaal Charles had 134 yards on 22 carries, and a touchdown, averaging 6.1 yards per carry. What started off as a slow day turned into a big one for Jamaal Charles as he shreaded the TCU defense throughout the second half with big runs. This is the kind of performance that many expected out of Charles this season, and if the offense can open up holes and allow him to get to the second level, Charles is going to have the chance to make big runs. He should continue to build on this performance and should have plenty of chances to be the big time performer that he is capable of being.

Wide Receivers
Nate Jones continued to establish himself as Colt's go to receiver as he had 8 catches for 91 yards and a touchdown. He is continuing to benefit from the attention that defenses must pay to Limas Sweed (4 catches/26 yards). This week the other receivers definitely stepped up and had good days. Quan Cosby had 6 catches for 51 yards and Jermichael Finley had 4 catches for 51 yards. The wide receivers definitely stepped up and filled the void left by Pittman and Shipley who are still out with suspension and injury, respectively. As Pittman and Shipley return to the lineup, this unit can only get stronger.

Offensive Line
The offensive line might have turned a corner this week against TCU. After a first half where they couldn't get the running game on track they wore down the TCU defense with a 3rd quarter time of possession of 10:28. They also allowed Jamaal Charles to run wild in the second half, and did not allow a sack in the entire game. The offensive line took a hit with the injury to Adam Ulatoski, but if they can continue to protect Colt and give him time to throw, and establish a running game, then this unit could look at this season as a success.

Texas' defense
Defensive Line
The Texas defensive line had new faces step up and perform on the field. Defensive ends Eddie Jones (FR) and Lamarr Houston (SO) led the defensive line with 6 tackles and 6 tackles, a sack, and a forced fumble, respectively. Freshman Sam Acho also had a sack. If the young defensive ends can continue to step up and play well, Texas' defensive line will be formidable with the experience of Derek Lokey (SR, 4 tackles), Frank Okam (SR, 1 tackle), and Roy Miller (JR, 3 tackles) anchoring the middle of the line.

Linebackers
A linebacking corps that looked atrocious against Arkansas State looked very solid as everyone came to play, and the entire unit had contributions. Scott Derry led the unit with 8 tackles, a forced fumble, and an interception. Rashad Bobino and Robert Killebrew chipped in with 7 and 6 tackles, respectively. Even the bench contributed as Roderick Muckelroy (SO) had 5 tackles and a fumble recovery and Jared Norton (SO) had 4 tackles, a sack and a forced fumble. This was a great performance out of the linebacking corps. They showed how good they could be, and if they play this well, they make this defense very good.

Secondary
Despite the way they played in the Arkansas State game, Texas decided to continue to field a secondary. It turned out to be a good decision as the secondary played solid throughout the game, which, at this point, we will take. Marcus Griffin once again led the team in tackles with 11 and Erick Jackson had another good game with 8 tackles. Brandon Foster and Ryan Palmer both had a better day in coverage. This unit will never be outstanding this season, but if they can put out performances like this, they will make this defense a top unit.

Coaching Staff
Texas rebounded from the Arkansas State game and came out and played much better defensively against TCU. The offense struggled in the first half, but the offense and defensive staffs should be applauded for making adjustments at half time. After totaling under 100 yards in the first half, the offense attacked TCU on the ground, taking the pressure off Colt and allowing the offense to gel to the tune of 300 yards and 34 points. The defense showed signs of what made them a great unit last season. After playing solid in the first half, holding TCU to 111 yards of offense, Texas was a dominating unit to start the second half. From the start of the 2nd half until 7 minutes left in the 4th quarter, Texas held TCU to 5, 3 and outs and 17 total yards. This allowed the Texas offense to wear out the TCU defense and put the game away. It showed that even without Gene Chizik, the defense can be the unit that looked so formidable over the past two seasons.

View From The Cheap Seats: TCU

Each week, when I attend a game, I will post the good, bad and ugly of the things stat sheets do not necessarily show. These are the views from the cheap seats.

The Good

Halftime Adjustments: Its amazing what can happen when Greg Davis listens to bloggers everywhere. He gets it right. Well, okay, so maybe no one on the web had his ear, but changes were made at halftime and those brought back the Texas offense we know and love. The biggest beneficiary of this was Jamaal Charles, who rushed for 100 yards in the second half. Jamaal's runs were down field and less lateral and he took it right at the vaunted TCU defense. The revamped running game, set up Colt to have the field open up for the passing game. Nicely done, Greg. Nicely done.

The Linebackers: Scott Derry, Rashad Bobino, Roderick Muckelroy and Jared Norton were everywhere, making plays on the field. Solid tackles, forced fumbles and interceptions were the name of the game from the linebacking corp. This was something that was sorely missed against Arkansas State. TCU had only 43 yards rushing and 251 total yards (much of this after the game was iced). The linebackers were in the back field and covering passes well across the middle. This is the type of performance everyone expected from the talented and deep linebackers.

The Bad

The First Half Offense: Is was the same old struggles for half of this game. Lateral runs, predictable, short passes and an under-utilization of talented weapons. Colt had a costly interception that was returned for a TD and another that was able to set up a field goal. The offense actually scored 10 points for TCU in the first half. Luckily the defense only gave up 3 points all game.

More Injuries: Adam Ulatoski and Jermichael Finely went down with injuries in the game. While J-Mike came back into the game, Ulatoski looks to have dislocated his elbow and is likely to be out a few weeks at the latest. Ulatoski was one of the most experienced linemen on the Texas team. He stated all last year and has been able to provide good protection and some depth so far this year. Lets hope of the young guys can step up. One place Texas cannot afford to lose players is on the offensive line.

The Ugly

Not too much that I would say was ugly. While Texas didn't score in the first half, there was never really a time you could say that TCU was dominating the game. It should have been 0-0 at the half, had it not been for a tipped INT and a tremendously read INT that was returned for a TD. But Texas fixed all of their problems after the half. So not much ugly here to report. Hell, even the DB's played decently enough to stay off the Ugly list.

Aww. That's cute

19 Days, 19 Questions: #11

With 11 days left until KICKOFF, 'The Forty' is back in business and going to run down the top 19 questions for the upcoming year.

11: Can Texas avoid the TCU upset?

This is one of those games you hate to play. There is really no way to win. On one hand, everyone expects you to win. So if you win, you were supposed to. But if you lose, it is a monumental upset (See OU v. TCU). The thing is, most people outside the south don't realize just how good this TCU team is and how they have been a consistent top performer over the past half decade. Don't fool yourself, the Texas offense will struggle some against arguably the most seasoned defense in the nation.

However, news came down today that starting defensive tackle, James Vess, will be out for the season after violating team rules. This will bring a true freshman to step in and take the place of the star lineman. On a similar note, Tommy Blake, the top star of this defense, has reportedly returned to campus after leaving for a week to be with his family. It was cited that the reason for the leave of absence was that he had been overwhelmed by the publicity he was receiving. Blake appeared on this year's cover of Dave Campbell's Magazine.

While the Frog defense is the unquestioned strong suit of this team, the offense is questionable this offseason, especially at the quarterback position. Monday, redshirt freshman Andy Dalton, from Katy, TX (My hometown), was named the Frog's starting quarterback for the 2007 season. Dalton has not taken a snap since the 2005 Texas high school state championship game. TCU does look to have a solid running game. Junior Aaron Brown leads the rushing attack for the upcoming year. In 2006, Brown rushed for 801 yards and 9 TDs. However Brown is also TCU's top returning receiver with 34 catches for 455 yards.

In 2006 TCU was ranked 2nd in the nation in total defense. The Frogs gave up only 60 rushing yards and 174 passing yards per game. TCU returns eight starters from that top defense. This game will provide a great matchup as Texas' high powered offense must face this staunch defense. Texas is hoping that injured wide reveivers Limas Sweed and Billy Pittman will be at full strength when TCU rolls into town.

Texas' defense should be capable of slowing the TCU offense. Texas was 3rd in the nation in run defense last year, allowing just 61 rushing yards a game. And while Texas might be soft in the secondary, TCU's offensive weakness is the passing game. Texas should be able to stiffle the young QB and his wide outs.

The key to this game, for Texas, is going to be how its offensive line responds to the tough TCU defensive front. This will be their first test of the year, and it may be the hardest of the season. Jamaal Charles and the running game may have a difficult time getting the push and racking up yards. But as long as Colt is given some time to pass, he should be able to hit enough of his talented wide outs to pull out the game for the Horns. But make no mistake, Texas will struggle to move the ball and there will be some tense times for Longhorn fans.

My Prediction: Texas 24 TCU 10