Big XII Bubble Watch

The Big XII race appears to be sorting itself out, as there is starting to be some seperation between the top 6 teams. The question still remains as to how many tournament teams the Big XII can muster. Oklahoma and Baylor remain the biggest question marks on the bubble as to whether the Big XII will get four, five, or six teams into the dance. The postseason outlook for the Big XII...

#5 Kansas (24-2) (9-2) RPI: 6; SOS: 58
W - vs. Arizona, at USC
L - at Kansas State
To Play: vs. #25 Kansas State, at #22 Texas A&M
- Kansas should be able to win the rematch against Kansas State, as the Wildcats have been struggling as of late, and the Jayhawks should be able to contain the Aggies front line. This would give Kansas either the #1 or #2 seed heading into the Big XII tournament and have them at 29-2. While the record is impressive, they haven't played the most difficult of schedules and if they don't win the Big XII they might not garner a #1 seed.

#7 Texas (22-4) (9-2) RPI: 5; SOS: 3
W - vs. Tennessee, at UCLA, vs. St. Mary's, vs. Kansas
L - at Missouri
To Play: vs. Oklahoma, at. #25 Kansas State
- Texas seems in prime position to take the Big XII title. Though they will need to play their best on the road against Kansas State, a game that will test their front line. Texas has played a great schedule and has three wins against the top 6 teams in the country. If they can manage to win out and make it to the finals of the Big XII tournament, they could sneak into a #1 seed, but they profile best as a #2 seed. If they drop two of their last five, they would probably become one of the most dangerous #3 seeds in the tournament.

#25 Kansas State (18-7) (8-3) RPI: 29; SOS: 33
W - at Oklahoma, vs. Texas A&M, vs. Kansas
L - vs. George Mason, at Xavier, at Missouri, at Texas Tech, at Nebraska
To Play: at Baylor, vs. Texas, at Kansas
- Losing to Missouri, Texas Tech, and Nebraska have really hurt Kansas State in conference play. They now have tough trips to Baylor and Kansas with a visit by Texas to close out the season. If Kansas State goes 2-3 the rest of the way, they should still be dancing, but a win over Baylor or Texas would help cement what has been a solid season for the Wildcats behind Michael Beasley. A 21-9 mark for the season could slot the Wildcats as a #5 or #6 seed that no one will want to play.

#22 Texas A&M (20-6) (6-5) RPI: 39; SOS: 80
W - at Ohio State, vs. Texas
L - at Texas Tech, at Kansas State, vs. Oklahoma State, at Texas
To Play: at Oklahoma, at Baylor, vs. #5 Kansas
- The Aggies have not made things easy on themselves with inconsistent play throughout the conference season. They have a tough stretch ahead of them and really need to take one or both of the OU and Baylor games. The Aggies need to win 3 of their last 5 to avoid going 8-8 in conference and putting themselves in a difficult position come tournament time. Even if the Aggies go 23-8, it might not be enough to make them a #6 seed in the tournament. And while this is an Aggies team that is built for close games in the post season, life as a #7 or #8 seed would make life extremely difficult.

Oklahoma (18-8) (6-5) RPI: 26; SOS: 13
W - vs. Arkansas, vs. Gonzaga, at West Virginia, Baylor twice
L - vs. Stephen F. Austin, at Kansas by 40, at Colorado
To Play: at #7 Texas, vs. #22 Texas A&M
- The Sooners have done well as of late and appear to be finally healthy heading down the stretch. They have impressive RPI and SOS numbers that should help them in front of the selection committee. They have been wildly inconsistent this season, looking very good at times, and at other times, far from it. They should win at least 3 of their final 5, which should be enough to get them in the dance, but a win over Texas A&M would be nice to solidify their place in the tournament. They should end up as a #8 or #9 seed in the dance, which would be a nice accomplishment for a young program under Jeff Capel.

Baylor (17-8) (5-6) RPI: 40; SOS: 38
W - at Notre Dame, at Texas A&M
L - vs. Arkansas, Oklahoma twice, at Oklahoma State
To Play: vs. #25 Kansas State, vs. #22 Texas A&M
- Baylor has CBS executives worried. What once was easily the feel good story of the tournament has fallen on shaky times, as Baylor has free falled the past few weeks as it has forgotten how to play defense. While three easy games will help to turn things around, Baylor really needs to protect their home floor against either one or both of the games against KSU and A&M. A 20-10 record should let the Bears sneak in, but they really need one more big win to cement their resume and not have to rely on mediocre computer numbers. One or two wins in the Big XII tournament wouldn't hurt either.

The Race for the NIT:

Texas Tech (14-11) (5-6) RPI: 62; SOS: 6
- Tough games down the stretch with this Saturday vs. Iowa State as the only one that they will be favored to win. Great computer numbers, but will need to pull an upset somewhere down the stretch.

Missouri (14-12) (4-7) RPI: 86; SOS: 21
- The kindest closing schedule of the NIT hopefulls, with games vs. Colorado, Oklahoma State, and Iowa State looming. Missouri could do the unthinkable if they suspend half their team and then make the NIT. I will be rooting for them.

Oklahoma State (13-12) (4-7) RPI: 111; SOS: 37
- This may come down to the Bedlam Series for the Cowboys as they will probably need to beat Oklahoma at home along with Nebraska at home and Missouri on the road if they hope to have any chance at the NIT. With their sluggish computer numbers, they will need to have a winning record overall and close to .500 in conference.

Nebraska (15-9) (4-7) RPI: 133; SOS: 134
- While the win over Kansas State gave them life, the computer numbers remind you that those 15 wins came against lesser foes. They will need to do some work and get more than just the visit from Colorado. That means beating Oklahoma at home or OSU on the road. Or if they prefer to dream big, A&M or Texas on the road. The computer numbers and the conference record might leave the Huskers at home.

Iowa State (14-12) (4-7) RPI: 135; SOS: 66
- If Iowa State hopes to see a postseason of any sort they will have to do their work away from Ames. Kansas and Kansas State are the only remaining visits they have, but don't count them out as wins are possible at Texas Tech, Missouri, and Colorado. But it may take them two or all three of those road games to make it to the promised land that is the NIT.

Big XII Weekend Capsule: Week 1, Part 2

Kansas State (10-4) at Oklahoma (12-3)
- This game is probably the biggest contest of the weekend in the Big XII. Neither team has a great shot to compete against the Big 3 in the conference, but the winner of this game will be in the drivers seat towards making an NCAA tournament bid. It could be very likely that these two teams sit 4 & 5 in the Big XII at the end of the season with very similar tournament resumes. Kansas State is lead by their two stars, Michael Beasley (24.3 ppg/13.3 rpg) and Bill Walker (15.3 ppg/6.9 rpg). They make a formidable front court tandem as both can play inside and out and can run the floor, handle the ball, and score. It will be a difficult test for Oklahoma's two leading scores, PF Blake Griffin (Fr; 14.7 ppg/8.8 rpg) and C Longar-Longar (Sr; 12.7 ppg/6.1 rpg). Both are more traditional big men and will have a difficult time dealing with their athleticism. If they can attack Kansas State inside and get Beasley in foul trouble, Oklahoma will have a good chance to win this game.

Prediction - Oklahoma 67, Kansas State 64

Iowa State (10-5) at Baylor (12-2)
- No, really. Baylor is good. And they proved themselves on the road, with wins at Wichita State, Notre Dame, and South Carolina. They also lost to #3 Washington State by 3 and Arkansas by 7 in Waco and beat Winthrop. This team has 5 guys scoring in double figures and deep and talented guard play. With Curtis Jerrells, LaceDarius Dunn, Aaron Bruce, Henry Dugat, and Tweety Carter, Baylor can play with any team in the country. The one glaring weakness for the Bears is in the front court where Kevin Rogers is expected to pick up most of the slack. This is the weakness that Iowa State will need to attack if they have any hope of winning this game. With three forwards and a center scoring in double figures for the Cyclones, they have the weapons to attack Baylor's weaknesses. It will come down to which team can dictate the pace and their style of play. And that's where you think that Baylor's backcourt will prevail.

Prediction - Baylor 82, Iowa State 69

#3 Kansas (15-0) at Nebraska (11-2)
- With wins over Arizona State and #16 Oregon, behind the play of first team All Big XII center Aleks Maric (Sr; 16.2 ppg/8.4 rpg) , Nebraska has looked its strongest in the past four years. Will that matter against Kansas? No. This team is too talented, too deep, and too well coached. They have been tested against Arizona, USC, Georgia Tech, and Boston College this season and they have handled them all. The only time they look vulnerable is when they get complacent. Their roster is littered with future NBA players and are the clear favorite to win the Big XII this season. They won't drop their conference opener.

Prediction - Kansas 87, Nebraska 69

Big XII Weekend Capsule: Week 1, Part 1

Big XII Conference play opens this weekened with Kansas State and Oklahoma meeting for an important early matchup in Norman. #13 Texas and #3 Kansas also have challenging road tests in Missouri and Nebraska to start the conference slate. Everyone knows Kansas, Texas, and #10 Texas A&M will be battling for the crown at the end of the season, but it will be interesting what other teams will be in the mix towards the end of the season out of a group that includes Oklahoma, Kansas State, Missouri, and could it be, Baylor? Here's a look at this weekend's opening week matchups...

#13 Texas (13-2) at Missouri (10-5)
- Former UAB coach Mike Anderson has come to Columbia with his high energy, high pressure system, and it has already begun to show results. With a good recruiting class in place for next year, Anderson has this program on the right track. While they aren't ready to contend right now, Quin Snyder did leave some non-criminal talent at Missouri. Missouri is lead by DeMarre Carroll (PF/Jr; 14.8 ppg/6.8 rpg) and Stefhon Hannah (PG/Sr; 13.9 ppg/5.5 apg). But Missouri will run a lot of players at Texas and pressure the entire game. DJ Augustin, AJ Abrams, and Justin Mason will all be called upon to handle the ball and face the pressure, and if they can hold up, Texas' offensive fire power should be too much for Missouri to handle. The guard play at Texas is its strongest point, and the recent play of Damion James and the addition of Gary Johnson has Texas at the strongest it has been all season.

Prediction: Texas 87, Missouri 79

Texas Tech (9-5) at Oklahoma State (9-5)
-It is strange to not have Tech and OSU near the top of the Big XII. But this year both programs are in rebuilding mode. At times both have looked very good and very bad. Tech with wins over #14 Gonzaga and a one point loss to #25 Stanford, and losses to Sam Houston State, Centenary, and New Mexico by 17. Oklahoma State with wins against LSU and Washington by 25 and losses to Illinois, Oral Roberts, and #13 Marquette by 30. Tech is lead by Martin Zeno, but I'm told they have other players. The backcourt of Alan Voskil and John Roberson are the only other threats with both scoring in double figures. Oklahoma State will counter with their three guards, James Anderson, Terrel Harris, and Byron Eaton. The game may very well come down to the play of Marcus Dove inside for Oklahoma State. If he can have a big day he will take the pressure off of his guards to win the backcourt battle.

Prediction: Oklahoma State 65, Texas Tech 59

Colorado (8-6) at #10 Texas A&M (14-1)
- You would think Colorado is a talented Division III team the way they don't have anyone over 6'6" that averages at least 13 minutes a game. I guess that also could explain why they couldn't beat New Orleans. No, not the Hornets. The...um...well New Orleans....College/University/High School? Richard Roby leads this team in scoring, rebounding, and attempts to kill himself or a teammate. I suppose I could go into how Texas A&M is playing well under Mark Turgeon, and Josh Carter has developed into a solid go-to threat, and how DeAndre Jordan is getting better every game averaging 10.3 ppg and 7.3 rpg, and how this program will continue to get better as they've already signed two ESPN 150 recruits for next year from, get this, Florida? But really, I think all you need to know is that Colorado is really, really, really bad.

PREDICTION: Texas A&M 81, Colorado 63

Tomorrow: Kansas State at Oklahoma, Iowa State at Baylor, and #3 Kansas at Nebraska

Damion James Names Big 12 Player of the Week

Texas sophomore frontman, Damion James, was named as the Big 12 player of the week. In two games, James averaged 19 points and 10 rebounds. James had, arguably, his best game as a Longhorn as he scored 19 points and 10 boards in the Longhorn win against UCLA. James also slammed home the game winning basket, as Texas upset the #2 Bruins.

James seems to be benefiting from the departure of Kevin Durant, as he seems to have found his place in the offense and is more comfortable with the ball. Against UCLA, James consistently hit his mid-range jumpers, which will be a huge key to the success of the Texas offense. James came to Texas with huge expectations, and now starting to live up to the hype so far this year.

Big 12 Preseason Basketball Honors

Texas' D.J. Augustin tops the Preseason basketball list for the Big 12. The coaches voted him to be the top player in the league. Despite that, Texas faces a tough road in the Big 12 without Kevin Durant back for his sophomore year. Texas looks to compete with Kansas and Texas A&M for a very tough Big 12 title.

2007-08 Preseason All Big 12 Team

G Curtis Jerrells, Baylor JR
F Darrell Arthur, Kansas SO
G Brandon Rush, Kansas JR
C Aleks Maric, Nebraska SR
G D.J. Augustin, Texas SO
C Joseph Jones, Texas A&M SR

Player of the Year: D.J. Augustin, Texas
Newcomer of the Year: DeMarre Carroll, Missouri
Freshman of the Year: Micheal Beasley, Kansas State

Preseason Polls

The Aggie Resurgance that Never Was

Five years into the Dennis Franchione era and Texas A&M is still searching for answers after a 34-17 drubbing at the hands of a Miami team that is not your typical Miami. This shouldn't be happening. The time for the Aggies is now. The resurgence of a program that fell from grace under RC Slocum should be well on its way towards Big XII titles and BCS bowls in year 5 under Dennis Franchione.

What exactly has gone wrong in Aggieland is even a more puzzling question. Since Franchione's arrival in College Station the Aggies have never finished with a better conference record than 5-3 ('04/'06), and those are the only two seasons that they have had winning records in conference. The Aggies have made only two bowl games in Franchione's four years, the Cotton in '04 and the Holiday Bowl in '06. Both, needless to say, were debacles, after losing to Tennessee 38-7 in '04 and California 45-10 in '06. During his four years he has amassed a 28-24 record, posting two winning seasons, a 6-12 record against ranked opponents (4 wins in his first two seasons, only two since), and a 1-9 record against Texas, Oklahoma, and Nebraska.

The thing that makes this all the more of a mystery is A&M's recruiting classes during Franchione's tenure. According to rivals.com, A&M had the #13 class and the #8 class in '04 and '05 respectively. However, they haven't been able to sustain that level with the #27 class and the #43 class in '06 and '07. Things do look better for '08 as they are currently rated at #13 for next year's class. But, you have to wonder what has happened to those first two top classes that are currently juniors and seniors. The players just haven't developed and the drop off in '06 and '07 don't show things getting any brighter in the near future.

A&M has appeared to have two turning points under Franchione, both of which were not sustained or built on. In his second season, A&M improved 3 games, notching wins over 3 ranked teams (Clemson, Oklahoma State, and Texas Tech). The 7-5 mark looked to be a step in the right direction for Franchione. However, a loss in the Cotton Bowl (38-7), followed up by a 5-6 campaign in 2005, eroded any progress Franchione had made. Last season's win over Texas and a 9-3 record promised to be the re-birth of the program, but it appears that too is not going to be sustainable, as they followed the Texas game with a loss in the Holiday Bowl (45-10), two unimpressive wins in their first two games of 2007, capped off with a game that they were down 31-0 against a Miami team that hadn't shown any offense in 3 games thus far this season.

Unlike the 7-5 season in 2004, the 9-4 season in 2006 appeared to be more smoke and mirrors than actual substance. After having home and homes with Utah ('03 and '04) and Clemson ('04 and '05) both have fallen off the schedule in exchange for the likes of SMU and Texas State (2005), Citadel, LA-Lafayette, Army, and LA-Tech (2006), and Montana State, Fresno State (1-2), and LA-Monroe (2007). While the records have improved over the past two seasons, the quality of opponent has dropped off considerably, and it has come back to hurt the Ags in Big XII play. With road games at Texas Tech, Nebraska, Oklahoma, and Missouri, 5-3 in the Big XII would be a major success for this current Aggies team, that is suffering from a range of problems.

The Aggies defense has always been shaky and suspect throughout the Franchione era, which is confusing considering his reputation for defense at TCU and Alabama. This year's defense looks even worse than in years past, getting torched by Fresno State and Miami through the air. The secondary looks confused and undisciplined. Though the secondary doesn't look anywhere as bad as the passing game. Featuring Stephen McGee, Javorskie Lane, and Michael Goodson on the ground makes A&M look like one of the most fearsome units in the country, but after the showing by McGee in the passing game, the Aggies will be facing 8 men in the box for much of the rest of the season. McGee was a very distinguished passing quarterback in high school, but he seems to have lost all confidence in his arm.

However, the most concerning problem with the Aggies is the coaching staff. The game plan for the Miami game was poorly conceived and executed. This is nothing new for the Aggies in big games, as was evidenced in the big bowl losses in 2004 and 2006. Franchione seems unable to put together a winning game plan, and play to his strengths, while attacking his opponents weakness.

While many are taking joy in the continued struggles of the Aggies, it's not good for Texas, or the Big XII. With a conference that features two national contenders (Texas is even questionable this season in that category) and not much else, the Big XII has fallen towards the bottom of the major conferences, clearly behind the SEC, Big East, Pac-10, and probably the ACC and Big Ten. The Big XII needs the Aggies to stabilize the conference, but it doesn't appear that will be the case anytime soon.

The Aggies have all kinds of problems, and depending on how this season plays out, Franchione may not have much rope left for that rabid fan base in College Station, or demanding Athletic Director Bill Byrne. You may or may not think Texas A&M deserves a winner, but the Big XII is in dire need of a national contender, and Texas needs another rival.

The Strength of Schedule Dilemna

For the past few years, Texas has had to come into the college football season fighting perception. The perception that Texas was a good football team, but played in a weak conference and did not deserve to be listed among the elite teams in college football. If you took a closer look at the schedule, it usually was warranted.

Over the past two years, Texas has worked to fight that perception, scheduling a dangerous home and home with Ohio State, and bringing on teams like TCU and Central Florida, a team that is not a complete walkover. To combat a conference that I would probably put behind the Big East at this point, Texas needs their games against TCU and Central Florida to be convincing and stand up. Well, the win against TCU was convincing. Texas looked like an athletic and multi-talented team on offense and defense for at least a half of that game. It was a game that Texas could point to when TCU went 11-1, with one of the conferences best defenses.

Thursday night, TCU returned the favor, screwing over the Horns with a loss on the road against Air Force. Granted, Air Force is always a solid team, but blowing a 17-3 4th quarter lead, is just painful. It puts into question the type of year the Horned Frogs can put together, as they fall to 1-2, after blowing a 10 point lead against Texas and a 14 point lead in one quarter against Air Force. The psychological damage done by two winnable games gone array could dismantle the entire season for TCU. It is scary to see whether we are looking at a 7-5 team come November and saying, why didn't we beat them worse?

Texas can't afford to have TCU and Central Florida not pan out as quality opponents. When your conference consists of four pop warner teams in the Big XII North (Kansas may be good, it's just hard to tell against High School teams) and two flawed teams in Missouri (No defense) and Nebraska (Not flawed? Wait until USC this weekend), it is difficult to be taken seriously. Even in the Big XII South, that high powered, unstoppable offense of Oklahoma State seems to be put on hold, Texas Tech will always blow out weak opponents and come up short against real talent, and Texas A&M still appears not ready to take the next step after less than stellar performances against Montana State and Fresno State.

It once again appears the Big XII title will come down to Oklahoma and Texas. With Oklahoma somehow turning into a national title contender over night and looking down right scary, it means Texas will either need to pull a big upset against the Sooners, or hope for a BCS at large birth. With TCU faltering, the propostion of having a top 50 strength of schedule and be taken seriously on a national stage looks increasingly difficult.