Sweet 16: East Region Preview

Not a lot of surprises in the East Region, other than how easily UNC manhandled their opponents. Tennessee was brought to the brink by both American and Drake, but in the end all 4 top seeds have advanced to the Regional semi-finals.

#1 North Carolina v. #4 Washington State

As mentioned, the Tarheels just ran over their first 2 opponents, averaging 110 points and winning by an average of 40 points. While a Washington State upset may not be very likely, look for the Cougars to put up a much better fight than anyone UNC has faced yet. The Cougars pride themselves on the defensive end and they will have their hands full with Tyler Hansbrough and crew.
Washington State does bring in an experienced team as they start 3 seniors and 2 juniors.They have only given up a total of 81 points in their first two Tourney games and held a dangerous Notre Dame offense to only 41 points. This game is going to be close, but in the end North Carolina's athleticism will be able to outmatch the tough defense brought by Washington State. Just don't expect UNC to score over 90 points in this win.

PREDICTION: North Carolina 82, Washington State 74



#2 Tennessee v. #3 Louisville

This may be the most anticipated matchup of the Sweet 16. Louisville has been a streaking team ever since they returned David Padgett and Edgar Sosa from injury. Tennessee, on the other hand, is an explosive team that has seemed to be misfiring so far in the NCAAs. They were taken to the wire against both Drake and American while Louisville cruised over Boise State and Oklahoma.
Tennessee likes to run and gun on offense while setting up a suffocating defensive press. However, Louisville has solid guard play in Andre McGee and Jerry Smith. The Vols will need for Chris Lofton to be on from down town while Tyler Smith and Wayne Chism will have to keep the Cardinal's David Padgett and Earl Clark off the boards.
Both teams run out very athletic teams and both are lead by flashy, flamboyant coaches in Rick Patino and Bruce Pearl. I trust Rick Patino more than I do Pearl, and Louisville has been on the rise while Tennessee as not put together a great game in the Tourney. In the end Padgett, will be pivotal in the middle and Louisville will be able to keep the Volunteer 3-point shooters down just enough to pull out the win.

PREDICTION: Lousiville 88, Tennessee 84

Tournament Notes

Thoughts and observations from the first two rounds of the NCAA Tournament...

East Region:

North Carolina - Teams don't get 100 put on them in the second round. The Tar Heels ran Arkansas out of the gym. They are defending and their offense looks unstoppable. For the first time all year the most talented team in the country is focused. Everyone should be very very scared. What's more is the way Lawson has looked and the fact that Hansbrough has only had to score 21 and 17 in the first two games. Can't wait to see if they run Washington State, a team that hangs their hat on defense, out of the gym.

Washington State - Speaking of the Cougars, a great under the radar performance. Coming off a year where they lost early with high expectations, they have played great defense and dominated two straight games, only no one noticed. 40 points and 41 points given up in a 31 point and 20 point win. This senior laden team is playing great basketball and has no expectations going into a game against the tournament favorites.

Louisville - Another team that went about their business this weekend. I think they will beat Tennessee handily. They handled Oklahoma like a second teir team. Well, Oklahoma is a second teir team, and great teams handle teams that shouldn't play with them. They play a great team game, and have one of the best coaches in the game on the bench.

Butler - They probably should have won that game, as Tennessee is a team just waiting for someone to beat them. I was disappointed with point guard Mike Green. I was expecting more from him and he seemed to play out of control and get himself into trouble driving to the basket all night long. AJ Graves played as advertised, but everytime Butler had a chance to make their move it seemed Green would get to the rack, draw three defenders and throw the ball up looking for the foul that never came.

Tennessee - They look about the same as the first time they were a #2 seed. A team waiting for someone to beat them. They struggled with American and they struggled against Butler. They rely on playing games at a frantic pace and good teams will slow them down and force them to play a half court game. In the half court game, you'll find a team that has no consistency out of the point guard position, has to be shooting well, and can't defend. Anything further than the Sweet 16 will be overachieving for this team.

Midwest Region:

Kansas - They have looked impressive and have handled all the challenges that have been thrown at them. They play good defense, and they get scoring from everyone on their roster. But all season they have played an easy schedule and struggled in close games (outside of the Big XII Championship game). The games are about to get serious and what will Kansas, a team that is notorious for collapsing, going to do in a close game with a lot on the line. Who gets the ball?

Villanova - This team continues to overachieve. They hung around in a tough conference and snuck into the tournament. Once they got there, they reminded everyone that you win with good defense and point guard play. Scottie Reynolds has been great in the tournament, and the Wildcats play with a physical intensity despite the fact that they're not great inside.

Wisconsin - I've seen the Badgers on TV a few times, and once in person against the Longhorns, and I will say two things. I have yet to be impressed by them, and I've yet to see them lose. This team plays ugly Big Ten basketball to perfection and Bo Ryan is one of the most unsung coaches in America. Which I guess its fitting at one of the most unsung schools in college basketball. They will beat Davidson and Stephen Curry will struggle. They play disciplined, physical, boring basketball. And they have a chance to knock of Kansas to get to the Final Four.

Georgetown - This is a team that didn't look impressive at any point this season. They played with teams they shouldn't have but they kept winning. Well they some how managed to blow an 18 point lead to a less talented team, and their season is over. Roy Hibbert was extremely disappointing for the second tournament in a row. He should have turned pro last season because I think is stock peaked last year.

West Region:

Duke - We should have seen it coming. They play high pressure defense and can't defend. They have no interior presence and rely on three pointers. Yet it's still weird to see Coach K teams lose early in the tournament. What was more disturbing is to see Coach K's expressions throughout the tournament. I know he had been sick, but he looked tired and understanding of his team's fate. Is the program suffering from the marketization and his team USA commitments?

Drake - It should be a rule that every mid-major should get screwed with 9 and 10 seeds for one or two years before we give them a five seed. It seems like mid-majors need tournament experience before they can handle something other than being the underdog. Everyone got our hopes up with this Drake team, and we were all let down.

Texas A&M - It was a underachieving and sometimes painful to watch season for the Aggies. Then the tournament roles around and they turn into a solid shooting team that has a great inside presence and plays tough defense. If they didn't choke from 10 minutes left until 4 minutes left in the UCLA game, they are thinking about the Final Four after pulling off the upset of the tournament. Even with that let down, they still got hosed. But after seeing that and the two Pac-10 tainted wins, I'm convinced John Wooden is working over the refs telepathically.

UCLA - I have not been impressed with this team the last two weeks. They got huge breaks in the Pac-10 Tournament and haven't looked that impressive in the Dance. They should have lost to A&M, but Collison and Love made insane plays down the stretch. The A&M game will either be their turning point that wakes them up and gets them to the Finals, or it will be the beginning of the end in a region that should be a cake walk. Shipp has fallen off the face of the earth and may be hurt now, and Mbah a' Moute isn't himself. I don't see how they can play with a North Carolina or Kansas.

South Region:

Memphis - Much like Tennessee, I dont' think they play the type of basketball that is condusive to winning the title. They rely on creating a hectic pace and getting out in transition. If you pack in defensively and force them to shoot and take care of the basketball I think they will crumble. They are more talented than Tennessee and have a better coach, but I still don't think they play the kind of basketball it takes to win championships. They will get their chance to prove me wrong as Michigan State will do all of those things and give Memphis their first test since the Tennessee game.

Michigan State - You have to give Tom Izzo credit. He has them focused for the right part of the season. They have played two good games in a row for the first time in a long time and they have the talent to play with Memphis. If Izzo can pull off the upset it will be one of his most impressive coaching jobs. If they do hang with Memphis it will be a physical game and Neitzel will torch Memphis from deep.

Pittsburgh - Pitt had a good point guard in Levance Fields, talent inside in Blair and Young, and a deep, physical team. It was a team that was primed to make a deep run in the tournament. Only they ran into a team with a better coach that had more experience in playing that grinding tough March style of basketball. An unlucky draw and an off night sent them home early.

Stanford - Trent Johnson is an idiot. To get tossed in the first half of an NCAA tournament game with a lead? Idiotic. Inexcusable. Especially when your assistant coach that takes over is going to bench your best two players for 5 minutes in the second half. I understand what he was doing. Both Lopez twins had 3 fouls, and he had an 8 point lead. Rest them from 11 minutes until the 8 minute timeout and then you have them fresh and not in grave foul trouble the rest of the way. Only when it went to 6:45 before he called a timeout and had watched the lead completely disappear did it become a horrible idea. They let Marquette back in the game and when you let a team back in the game that late, they're going to stay in it the rest of the way. Stanford should feel fortunate. And if Trent Johnson says he wouldnt' change a thing after that incident, then he's an even bigger idiot. Because no matter how good a coach Trent Johnson is, he doesn't help his team if he's not on the court. And no point made halfway through the first half is going to benefit your team over the 25 minutes that you're not going to be there.

Surprises and Disappointments

Each basketball season there are teams that seem to come out of nowhere and teams that start with high expectations and fall apart. Looking around the major conferences to see who has pleasently surprised and who has left us wanting more...

ACC
Surprise:
Duke (22-1)(10-0)
- Wait, when did that happen? Duke is good again? Sure, they weren't really not good at any point over the past few seasons, but you weren't worried about them winning National Titles. We definitely didn't savor the moment, because don't look now, but Duke might be the best team in the country. A one point loss to Pittsburgh is all that is keeping this team from being unbeaten. Apparently Coach K figured out how to balance Duke and Team USA, and threw in some Phoenix D'Antoni magic for good measure. They still maybe weak inside, but no one has been able to expose it, as Singler has fans around the country sick to their stomachs with his inside and outside play. Though the most frustrating has to be the transformation of Greg Paulus. For two years you could count on Paulus shrinking from the pressure and not coming through for the Dukies, then all of a sudden he looks like one of the best shooters in the country and becoming less likeable with every dead eye three. Duke is back. Shit.

Disappointment:
Teams not named Duke, North Carolina, Maryland, and Clemson
- The ACC might only get four teams into the Dance? Really? What happened to the premier basketball conference in America? Moved north to the Big East or west to the Pac-10, that's what happened. NC State took a major step backwards from last season along with Boston College. Wake Forest, Georgia Tech, Miami, and Florida State still can't escape mediocrity. Virginia Tech didn't really stand a chance thanks to recruits bailing out after the shooting, and they're still making a noble effort. And Virginia? Who knows what happened to them. Sean Singletary might as well be playing one on five. This conference is not that competitive and not that deep. It has been slowly going this direction for a number of years, and I'm not sure if I would take them over the SEC.

Big XII
Surprise:
Baylor (17-6) (5-4)
- They have cooled off in the last week or so thanks to the fact that they don't play any defense, but the Bears have been a success story that will surely get played to death come tournament time. Scott Drew has done a noble job of turning around the Bears and giving fans of that program something to cheer about. It has been a difficult road, but Baylor now boasts one of the deepest backcourts in the country with five really talented guards. And the scary part? Outside of point guard Aaron Bruce, they will all be coming back next season.

Disapointment:
Oklahoma State (12-12) (3-7)
- This one reeks of nepotism as 800-win club Eddie Sutton's son, Sean has quickly unraveled all that his father built. Sutton still looks for his first conference road win in two seasons, and recruiting isn't going as well either. Maybe his dad didn't tell him the secret of going after players with questionable character. Either way, the Cowboys season has been a big disappoinment thus far, and Sutton might not get to stick around to see if he can turn it around.

Big East
Surprise:
Notre Dame (18-5) (8-3)
- In what is the deepest and toughest conference in America, Notre Dame has proven that they are up to the challenge in an area that they have struggled in recent years. Led by sophomore forward Luke Harangody (20.8 ppg/10.4 rpg) the Fighting Irish have surprised many by sitting in a third place tie in the conference. Mike Brey's teams have always been around the bubble come NCAA tournament time, but this season, they are one of the teams that will surprise some people come March.

Disappointment:
Villanova (14-9) (4-7)
- Expecting to build off of a successful freshman campaign by Scottie Reynolds, many expected Nova to continue to be a factor in the Big East. But conference season has been one big headache for Jay Wright's crew. A recent five game losing streak probably dashed the Wildcats tournament hopes. But if you lose to last place Rutgers and then get beat by 22 by Isaiah Thomas' other team St. John's, you don't deserve to be dancing in March.

Pac-10
Surprise:
Stanford (20-3) (9-2)
- Trent Johnson has done quite the turnaround job at Stanford as he has the program back at the top of the Pac-10 sooner than anyone expected. Sure it helps to have two 7 footers, but Johnson has the Cardinal exceeding all expectations. They have won seven straight and may be looking at an end of season trip to UCLA to decide the conference title.

Disappointment:
Washington State (18-5) (6-5)
- Not a complete disappointment and they are starting to turn things around, but much more was expected out of the Cougars. Most thought they would be neck and neck all season with UCLA and in the top 10 in the country. But following a stretch where they lost 4 of 5, the Cougars are three games out of the race for the conference title. They still have time to turn it around, but Derrick Low and Kyle Weaver have not lived up to preseason expectations.

SEC
Surprise:
Mississippi State (16-7) (7-2)
- The biggest surprise for the Bulldogs is definitely the 7-2 conference record. Not much was expected out of them out of a 9-5 out of conference mark, but the Bulldogs have turned it on and were unblemished before losses to Arkansas and Tennessee. Jamont Gordon has led the way for Mississippi State averaging 18.1 ppg, 6.3 rpg, and 4.7 apg. But he's not alone as three other Bulldogs are scoring in double figures. Mississippi State has hit their stride and should be able to ride it into the tournament in March.

Disappointment:
Alabama (14-11) (3-7)
- The SEC conference season has not been kind to Alabama, as things have come unraveled. The season might cost coach Mark Gottfried his job as the Tide has stumbled their way to a 3-7 conference mark. Defensively the Crimson Tide have struggled, giving up over 72 points a game. They have a talented group coming in for next season, but there's no telling whether Coach Gottfried will be around to coach them.

Big Ten
Surprise:
Purdue (20-5) (11-1)
- The Boilermakers have surprised everyone this season. They have won 10 straight in conference including two wins over Wisconsin and one over Michigan State. Coach Matt Painter has his team playing solid Big Ten defense and is getting contributions from his entire team on the offensive end. With Indiana, Minnesota, and Ohio State still left on the schedule, they are not in the clear yet, but they are definitely the favorite to win the Big Ten.

Disappointment:
Illinois (11-14) (3-9)
- The Illini came into the season with many expecting them to have a down season, but I don't think anyone expected this under Bruce Webber. It has been all downhill since losing Eric Gordon and Illinois is having an extremely difficult time rebounding on the recruiting trail. Things don't appear like they are going to improve anytime soon in Champaign, and the clock might start ticking on an extremely talented coach.