Keys to the Game: Texas v. Texas Tech

KEEP ON KEEPPING ON... Texas has won 8 in a row, and have been playing their best basketball since the early season wins against UCLA and Tennessee. It seems like a different player has stepped up each game and Texas has won in ever possible fashion. DJ has found his stroke again as he is averaging 23 points and shooting 53% from the field the last two games. Texas dominated Tech in their first matchup in Austin, as the Horns won 73-47. Texas has been playing even better than they were in the earlier matchup, so the Longhorns need to just keep pouring it on the falling Raiders.

KICK'EM WHILE THEIR DOWN... Texas Tech is coming in off a humiliating loss to Texas A&M on Wednesday. The Red Raiders were down by almost 40 most of the game and ended up losing 98-45. That's gotta hurt. Teams respond to games like this in one of two ways: Either they come out on fire and pull off an upset, or continue to be demoralized and let the season spiral downward. If Texas can come out and pound the Raiders early, they may not be able to muster up the will to put up a fight.

REST D.J.... This needs to be one of those games that Texas pulls out to a lead and lets Rick Barnes rest some of his starters. We all know that DJ has played almost every minute of the season, but even Justin Mason did not get to rest against Kansas State. I wouls love to see a heavy does of bench play in the 2nd half and give the Horns some much needed rest as the Big 12 tournament is fast approaching. For this to happen its all about the first half and getting out to a commanding lead. If Texas can go into the break up 15, DJ and Co maybe be resting the last 10 mins of the game.

NO TRAP GAME... I know, even in this article, I seem to be chalking up the Tech win as a foregone conclusion; but let's hope the team doesn't do the same. No game in the Big 12 is a gimme (just ask the last few teams that played Nebraska). While there is no reason Texas should come close to losing to Texas Tech, a #1 tourament seed is still on the line as is the out right Big 12 Championship. There is a lot to play for, and Texas Tech is never going to lay down for the Longhorns. Fight hard, hustle and play some defense and Texas should be walking out of Lubbock with a win.

PREDICTION: Texas 84, Texas Tech 70

Hopefully this is what the arena will look like by halftime...

Keys to the Game: Texas v. Kansas State (a.k.a The "Weasley Wildcats")

When I was thinking about today's write up, I was thinking about doing my usual "Keys to the Game," which typically includes several key points that may make a difference in the upcoming game. But when thinking about today's matchup against Kansas State, i could only think of 2 things: Walker & Beasley. That pretty much sums up the Wildcat's team and season. In an unbelievable feat, Walker (31) and Beasley (44) combined to score 75 of K State's 86 points in a nine point loss to Baylor.

So, when thinking about what Texas is up against tonight, thats about all I could come up with. So instead of concentrating on actual game keys, I have decided to make up a useless name for the 2008 Kansas State Wildcats. From hence forth, they will be known in my blog posts as the "Weasley Wildcats." This, of course, combines Walker and Beasley into one super human "omni-player" which will unilaterally take on any opponent in the Big 12 and beyond. This extra-human force will obviously be represented by:


For those of you unfamiliar, that's a Harry potter reference. Yeah, I went there...

PREDICTION: Texas 76, Kansas State 69 (Weasley Wildcats 60)

Keys to the Game: Texas v. A&M

DJ CONTRIBUTING.... It's no secret that Augustin has struggled shooting the past 5 games. Most likely, it has to do with the fact that he has played nearly every single minute this season. DJ's legs may be getting tired, and that is understandable. However, despite his poor shooting performance against Baylor, DJ may have been the offensive MVP with his game management and ball distribution. DJ still took the ball strong to the basket, but was able to dish the ball to an open Damion James or Gary Johnson. There is no way Texas could have won in Waco if it weren't for Augustin (late free-throws aside).

FREE-THROWS... Texas is not only going to have to get to the free-throw line often, but they are going to have to actually hit them. Texas has been better as a team from the foul line recently, but had a hiccup in Waco as DJ and AJ Abrams missed 3 FT in the last minute. In College Station, Texas only hit 11-21 from the foul line. Texas needs to take more than 20 FT tonight, and they are going to have to make more than 50%. Last A&M game, DJ had ZERO FTs. He is going to have to get to the hoop and draw fouls. A&M can be prone to fouls, so Texas needs to take advantage of this. Get the A&M big men in foul trouble and make your free-throws, and Texas has a lot better chance at winning this game.

BIG MEN PLAY... Damion, Gary, Dex, Connor and Alexis are going to be big parts of this game. At least 3 of these 5 are going to have to step up and have great games. Whether it be Damion & Gary crashing the boards and getting to the line, Connor from the outside, or Pittman pounding inside, there needs to be a presence felt from the Texas big men. Gary Johnson only played 4 minutes in the first A&M game, but he is obviously going to see many more minutes this time around. And Barnes was so disappointed in the way Damion played in College Station, that he kept him out of the starting line up for a few games. Something tells me James is going to be on fire tonight and be huge force for Texas.

CONTAIN JOSH CARTER... For the most part, Texas knows they might struggle containing the Aggie big men. De'Andre Jordan, Joe Jones and Brian Davis are going to be strong inside and outplay the Texas big men. So the area Texas needs to control is the shooting of Josh Carter. Carter has killed Texas teams in the past and dropped 19 on them earlier his year. You may see Texas in a lot of zone defense and they are going to have to close out and get a hand in Carter's face on the kick out pass from the post. They simply cannot allow him to stand and fire uncontested 3's all night. If Texas can contain Carter and the Aggie outside shooting, then Texas will have a much better chance at pulling off this critical home game.

JUST WIN... That's what Texas has been doing lately. It hasn't always been pretty. There have been bad starts, poor shooting, come backs, late game rallies and almost blown opportunities. But somehow Texas keeps on winning and have pulled off 5 straight wins and 8 of their last 9. Not lost in all of these wins, is the fact that Texas now controls its own destiny in competing for the Big 12 regular season title. They are tied in the loss column (8-2) with Kansas (9-2) and still have to face Kansas State (8-2). Texas has the tie-break over Kansas, and can knock out the Wildcats with a win in Manhattan. Texas' tough road to the Big 12 Championship starts tonight against the Aggies. If they can win tonight, the only real threat to derailing their title plans are the Kansas State Wildcats, on February 25th.


MY PREDICTION: TEXAS 72, A&M 71

Keys to the Game: Texas v. Kansas

1. FAST START... I know I have harped on this for the past few weeks, but its importance cannot be understated. The past four games, Texas has spotted their opponent a 10 point lead. They came back in three of those, but there is no way this team can come back against Kansas. AJ is going to have to start the game hot, and DJ is going to have to get back into his early season form. If Damion can establish his outside game early, that may clear the paint for a Gary, Dex or Conner to operate down low and give DJ a better path to the basket. Watch it. The first 5-7 minutes will decide this game.

2. INSIDE DEFENSE... Ok, we already know Texas has a problem with teams that have 2 decent big men. Well, Kansas has about 5 of them. Sacha Kahn and Darrell Arthur are going to give the horns all they can handle. Look to see Texas try to run out a bigger line up most of the game. I think the key comes down to stopping Arthur. He showed what he can do against teams with poor post defense as he lit up Baylor for 33 points. Dex, Wangmene, Connor and Clint are all going to be rotating on the KU big men, and if they can hold their own or just minimize the damage, Texas may have a shot.

3. PACE OF PLAY... Texas will not be able to run with Kansas. Period. KU is one of the fastest teams in the country and love to push the tempo. They put up 100 points against Baylor and are among the tops in the country in scoring offense. The key to Kansas' fast play is that their big men can get down the floor quickly. The slower Texas big men are going to have to chase Darrell Arthur all over the floor. Look for Texas to rotate big men frequently to keep them fresh and out of foul trouble. Also, the pace of play is going to be on the shoulders of DJ. Texas must get a quality shot every time down the floor. Bad missed and quick KU rebounds equal a blow out of the Horns. DJ is going to have to play with in himself. Make smart passes and take quality shots. Look for Texas to use the shot clock on most possessions. This is going to have to he a low scoring game in the 60s or 70s if Texas has a chance. If DJ plays like he did in Ames, its lights out for Texas.

4. AJ STAYING HOT... Abrams has been Texas' best player over the last 5 games. Kansas is going to score and Texas is going to have to come up with an answer. I can see Texas keeping it within 6-10 points most of the game, and a few clutch 3s from AJ might be enough to give Texas a chance to win the game in the final 2 minutes. AJ is going to have a much larger defender on him and is going to have to be very creative and use his screens well to get quality shots off all night.

5. JOHNSON & JAMES... Gary and Damion are Texas' two most gifted athletes and they are going to have to play out of their minds tonight. Damion has to have a good shooting night and look for his outside shot. He is going to have to be a monster on the defensive boards and use his athleticism to keep the KU big men off the offensive glass. Gary is going to have to establish a post presence on offense and convert shots around the basket. If Gary can step out and hit the 10 footer, Texas is going to be sitting pretty on offense. Mostly, Gary is going to have to be in position on defense and active on the glass. Again, I cannot stress enough how good Darrell Arthur and Kansas are. Keep them off the offensive glass, pull them away from the paint on defense and keep them from getting good post position on offense. Those are the keys to Texas coming away with a huge conference win.


PREDICTION: KU 88 Texas 74

Keys to the Game: Texas Tech Edition

The 8-2 Texas Longhorns, coming off their second straight come from behind victory, return home to DKR to take on the high powered attack of the 7-3 Texas Tech Red Raiders. Tech bounced back from two consecutive losses with a victory over Baylor, 38-7. For Texas to win their 5th straight game they will need to accomplish several Keys to the Game...

EARLY START
- Texas will need to get out to an early start against the Texas Tech Red Raiders. The last two weeks, Texas has fallen behind big, first to Nebraska then to Oklahoma State. They were able to come from behind because Nebraska's offense isn't that formidable, and Oklahoma State tried to run out the clock far too early in the 4th quarter. Texas Tech's offense is #1 in the country, and they do it throwing the football, with the nation's best air attack at 492 yards per game. Having scored over 40 points in 7 of their 10 games, Texas Tech does not stop trying to put points on the board. Texas can't let Tech jump out to a big lead, because it will be too much to come back from.

TURNOVER BATTLE
- Texas' two losses this season have been because of crucial turnovers. The four against Kansas State and the two crucial ones against Oklahoma cost the Longhorns those games. Colt McCoy has been one of the main culprits this season, throwing 16 interceptions this year, the same number as his touchdowns. It is also a problem for the Red Raiders. In their two most recent losses, Graham Harrell was picked off 4 times in each of the two games. Both teams have given the ball away 21 times this year, and it has certainly kept the other team in games. Whichever team can take care of the football will put pressure on the opposing team's defense and force them to make a stop, something that you can expect either defense won't do with particular ease or frequency.

TURN 7's INTO 3's
- In Texas Tech's three losses, Graham Harrell has thrown for 397 yards, and over 400 yards in the other two. He is going to get his yards. Texas Tech is going to move the football up and down the field. The key for the Longhorns is when Texas Tech gets into the red zone, to tighten up and condense the space that Tech has available. If Texas can force Tech into some 3rd and long situations and come up to opportune stops, they will force Tech into field goals. Tech's kicker Alex Trlica is 8 of 15 this season, and is erratic at best, having missed half of his field goals from every distance. Texas needs to force the Red Raiders into two or three field goals and keep the Red Raiders under 40 points.

RUN THE BALL/T.O.P.
- In Texas Tech's three losses, the Red Raiders gave up 366, 212, and 217 yards on the ground. Their defense gives up 166 per game, and is in the bottom half of the nation in rush defense, while their pass defense is 9th in the nation. Texas needs to get Jamaal Charles 30 carries and control the game early and often. If Texas can win the time of possession and use Charles, McGee, and Ogbonnaya to attack the Raiders defense with at least 50 carries, Texas will tire out the Tech defense as well as keep the offense off the field. This is necessary because Texas is in the bottom half of the country in Pass defense, giving up 248 yards a game through the air.

FORCE HARRELL INTO MISTAKES
- Harrell had looked unstoppable for most of the season, until their two games against Missouri and Colorado, where he threw 4 interceptions each game. Both defenses mixed up their coverages and were able to get some pressure on the quarterback. It apparently caused Harrell problems and he was uncharacteristically inaccurate. Texas needs to be able to get pressure on the quarterback with their front four since they will more than likely need 7 to be dropping back into coverage.

SPEED ON DEFENSE
- Texas Tech has an offense designed to spread the field and hit their receivers on quick crossing plays and force a defense to move laterally. If the Texas defense insists on three linebackers, especially two certain ones, noted for their immobility (Derry, Killebrew) Texas Tech will have a field day. If Texas sticks with one or two linebackers on the field, such as rotating Kindle, Norton, Muckelroy, and Bobino, and uses extra safeties and defensive backs, Texas will have a much more effective time matching up with Tech's speed. It might take a half or three quarters before Texas figures out that three big linebackers on the field is a bad idea.

LIMIT BIG PLAYS
- Though Tech's offense is designed to pick up 5 yards per play and methodically pick defenses a part, that is precisely the way to stop their attack as well. Forcing Tech to convert third downs is the only way to stop their offense. Forcing the Red Raiders into third and long is difficult but it is about the only way to stop their offense. Texas needs to limit the run after the catch, and punish the receivers with every reception. If they can force incompletions through hard hits and drops, Texas will make things more difficult. But if Texas Tech can turn the game into a track meet and pick up 15 yards a play, it will be a long, high scoring day for the Raiders. Also, Texas needs to know where Michael Crabtree is at all times. He has 104 receptions, 1,512 yards, and 18 touchdowns. Those numbers are unreal, and Crabtree is a big target that has figured out how to find holes in the zone. Texas can't let him have a 10 catch, 170 yard, 3 TD day.

SUMMARY
Texas seems to have figured out the Tech offense somewhat, having won 4 straight matchups. But Texas Tech does well when Texas' talent isn't NFL caliber on defense. In Texas' Rose Bowl seasons of '04 and '05, Texas won 51-21 and 52-17 in blow outs. But in years where the talent level hasn't been 5-star, Tech has made the games much closer losing by 3 in 2003 and by 4 in 2006. This year's defense is probably the worst that the Longhorns has had since they lost 42-38 in 2002. Texas will need to catch some breaks along the way, but they have to play much better than they have the past three weeks to get the victory.