NCAA Bubble Watch: 3/5/08

Texas A&M (21-8, 7-7) v. Baylor (20-8, 8-6): This is easily the biggest game in the Big 12 this week. A&M has played themselves onto the bubble as they have lost 4 of their last 5. The Aggies RPI is 48 and only have a 74 strength of schedule rank. A&M finishes with Kansas, which makes this game a MUST win against the Bear. If Baylor can win tonight they will add a huge notch to what already is a pretty solid tournament resume.

(4) Tennessee (26-3, 12-2) v. Florida (21-8, 8-6): While Florida has won 21 games, the reigning back-to-back champs have a strength of schedule of 104 and are 60 in the RPI. The SEC is not as strong a conference as it usually is. Vanderbilt, Tennessee, Ole Miss, Mississippi and Arkansas are all looking good for the tournament. It seems unlikely that the SEC will get 5 or more teams in the NCAAs. They really only have one solid win, over Vanderbilt. Florida may have to knock off Tennessee and Kentucky in their last two games to ensure a tournament bid.

Oklahoma (19-10, 7-7) v. Oklahoma State (16-12, 7-7): OU is looking good for the tournament right now. But it would be really nice to have a win over a solid OSU team to pad the resume. The COwboys have been hot of late as they are making a very late run at the post season. A win against the Sooner may put this marginal team near the front of the bubble teams. OSU really needs to win their last 2 games and maybe 1 or 2 in the Big 12 tournament, but a win over the Sooners will be a nice step forward.

South Florida (12-17, 3-13) v. Villanova (17-11, 7-9): Nova needs to finish 9-9 in the Big East and win some in the Big East tournament to make the Dance. That means a win over S. Florida and Providence are a must. Nova is definitely on the outside looking in. They are going to have to win tonight and hope for a great showing in the conference tournament to make it to March.

Central Florida (16-12, 9-5) v. Houston (21-7, 10-4): The Cougars are a very controversial team on the bubble. They have a great record but play in a really weak Conference USA. Their SOS is a unflattering 152 and a 60 RPI. Tom Penders and the Cougs beat Kentucky earlier in the year but lost to a hapless East Carolina team last game. UH is right on the cusp of the tournament, but need to finish really strong to get a look. With Memphis a lock and UAB looking okay, it is unlikely that CUSA will get 3 teams in the tournament.

Boston College (13-14, 4-10) v. Miami (FL) (20-8, 7-7): Right now the Hurricanes and former Texas assistant, Frank Haith, are looking really good for a NCAA bid. They got a big win over Virginia and have wins over Clemson, Georgia Tech, Duke and Maryland. Unless Miami losses to both BC and Florida State to close the year, look for them to be in the Big Dance.

Syracuse (17-12, 7-9) v. Seton Hall (17-12, 7-9): Both of these teams are in serious trouble of missing the NCAAs. In fact, they most likely will not get in. The loser of this game is absolutely eliminated from consideration. Both have to win and and then have A LOT of work to in the Big East tournament. This game will go further in eliminating a candidate than it will in getting someone in the tournament.

Kentucky (16-11, 10-4) v. South Carolina (13-15, 5-9): It has been a tale of two seasons for Billie Clyde and the Wildcats. They have made up for a horrendous early schedule with a great conference record. Kentucky is most likely not getting in, especially with top player Patrick Patterson out for the season. If Kentucky has any hope they will have to win tonight and against Florida to end the season. A 18-11, 12-4 Wildcat team will have to get a long look from the NCAA selection committee. The fact that they are Kentucky won't hurt either.

Getting Back to the Winning Formula

Unable to defeat Oklahoma, win a Big XII title, or make a BCS bowl, Texas demanded that coach Mack Brown make some changes with his staff. Someone had to answer for the underachieving offense and the defense that gave up over 21 points a game and 153 yards a game on the ground. Ultimately Brown sacrificed Carl Reese who resurrected a terrible defense during his six seasons at Texas. But in 2003, that defense had slipped and Texas had underperformed and Reese was the sacrifical lamb.

This lead to a new era for Mack Brown. Some would call it the Vince Young era. And while VY is the biggest reason for Texas' new found ability to win the Big XII and make BCS bowl games, the defense also was a large part of the equation. The defense's resurgence was in large part due to the hirings of Greg Robinson and Gene Chizik. In Robinson's only season on the Forty Acres his defense gave up under 18 points a game and managed to improve the run defense at over 40 yards a game. The improvement continued under Chizik whose defense never gave up over 305 yards a game and averaged under 18.5 points per game given up.

Mack Brown had employed a new strategy bringing in top coordinators who brought with them top defensive strategies. It kept Texas' defense always near the top of the country and always challenging opposing offenses. It also became a position that was a stepping stone for head coaching jobs as Robinson headed to Syracuse and Chizik parlayed his success into the Iowa State job. This allowed Mack Brown of continuing to attract the top defensive minds to the University of Texas.

Unfortunately, instead of replacing Chizik with a top coordinator in 2007, Brown settled on his co-defensive coordinator in 2005 and 2006 Duane Akina and promoting Larry Mac Duff from within. While Akina was an important part of the 05 & 06 defenses, everyone knew that is was Chizik's defense. The mistake proved to be costly as the 2007 defense was one of the worst that Mack Brown has ever had. 25 points surrendered a game and over 370 yards of offense given up a game, and a disappointing 10-3 season for the Longhorns that never looked prepared.

The results were obvious and Larry Mac Duff took the fall. Akina was demoted back to his old spot as co-defensive coordinator and in charge of the secondary, and Mack Brown once again went cherry picking at his favorite orchard, Auburn University. Will Muschamp became Texas' new defensive coordinator and will try and return Texas' defense to the top of the heap. Muschamp is one of the top up and coming coordinators in the country and will be a hot commodity every season he is Texas' defensive coordinator.

Let's hope Mack Brown learns the lesson here. That hiring top assistants from outside the program is the way to keep your team near the top. While Akina could end up being a good defensive coordinator somewhere, why let him get his feel for the job at Texas when you could hire someone that is already proven as one of the best from another school. Yes, it means Texas will continue to lose defensive coordinators to head coaching jobs, but is that necessarily a bad thing? It gets fresh blood in consistently that is trying to prove itself and prepare to become a head coach. It also gives the defense a different look to Big XII offenses every few seasons, which is always a good thing.

It would be nice if that was the case with the offense, but that's another story for another day. Either way, it appears Mack Brown has learned the error of his ways, and is going back to his winning formula. If the University of Texas is a premier school, and a premier place to coach, then why wouldn't you use that to your advantage by recruiting top coaches to go along with top players.